Economic scenarios

Name of module

Economic Scenarios for the EU Enlargement:
Turkish Perspective

Target group(s)

Students of economics, social sciences and business administration

Level (Bachelor, Master)


Years of study


Required knowledge

Basic micro & macroeconomics

Number of hours (total, % of face-to-face)

120 (50%)

Credits granted


Learning objective(s)

  • Analyze essential theoretical base of the economic integrations such as customs union, free trade area and monetary union.
  • Understand the workings of the EMU in specific (not only in theory but also in practice) and also gains and loses.
  • Interpret the principles of a single market, and static and dynamic effects of economic integrations (also with in the context of Turkey and the EU relations).
  • Understand the potential gains and loses of enlargement.
  • Search current issues and trends using variety of sources and data.
  • Examine the EU and Turkish labour markets with the use of economic models.
  • Analyze the effectiveness of public policy in alleviating labour force pressures.
  • Explain and critique various labour market indicators.
  • Discuss the factors that influence labour markets.
  • Research current issues and trends using a variety of sources and data.
  • Build a comparative economic scenario in terms of both the EU and Turkey based on Turkey’s potential membership


1. Theoretical Background

    1.1 Types / Classification of Economic Integrations   

      1.1.1 Free Trade Area

      1.1.2 Customs Union

      1.1.3 Common Market

      1.1.4 Economic and Monetary Union

    1.2 Economic Effects of Economic Integrations

      1.2.1 Economic Effects of a Customs Union (Cost& Benefits)

      1.2.2 Economic Effects of a Monetary Union (Cost & Benefits)

    1.3. Factors Jeopardizing the Potential Benefits of Integration (i.e. Risks / Pitfalls Facing Integrations)

    1.4. Enlargement

2. European Monetary Union (EMU)

    2.1 Concise History

    2.2 Today

    2.3 Common Exchange Rate Policy and EURO “as reserve money”

    2.4 Common Monetary Policy in the EURO Area

    2.5 Fiscal Policy in the EU

    2.6 Financial Integration and Financial Markets

    2.7. Enlargement and Its Effects on the EMU

    2.8 Some Potentially Important Concerns

3. Turkiye’s Integration to the EU

    3.1 How it started

    3.2 Historical Progress

    3.3 Present Situation: A Negotiating Country – Turkiye

    3.4. Integration of Turkiye to the EMU

      3.4.1 Maastricht Criterions – Nominal Convergence

      3.4.2 Copenhagen / Economic Criterions – Real Convergence

4. Economic Scenarios for 2020

    4.1. Gross Domestic Product

    4.2. National Income per Capita

    4.3. Unemployment Rate

    4.4. Foreign Trade

    4.5. FDI

    4.6. Budgetary Implications of Turkiye’s Membership Upon the EU

    4.7.Turkish Labour Market Dynamics

    4.8. Migration

      4.8.1.Migration Flows in Europe

      4.8.2.External Mobility and a Brief History of Migration from Turkiye

      4.8.3 Free Movement of Workers and Migration From Turkiye To EU                                                Countries

      4.8.4. Will Turkish Labour Force Invade the EU Labour Market after the Accession? Lessons from earlier enlargements

5. Conclusion and Policy Implications

Teaching methods

  • Lecturing (Theories and relevant empirical evidence, Analyzing the related EU Treaties, How to build an economic scenario? )
  • Presentation by students
  • Case studies (Selected empirical material and projections on Turkey’s potential membership to the EU )
  • Group discussion
  • Role play (optional)

Material, sources, literature

Please refer to, for material.

Main instructor(s) of the module

Dokuz Eylul University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences,
Utku Utkulu, Oğul Zengingönül

Co-operating authors


Status of work (a) First draft b) Work in progress c) tested and finalised d) published)


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